As many suspected, this season’s Western Conference features three really exciting teams at the top. If two weeks of matches proves anything (which it can’t), While LAFC’s one-two punch of Heung-Min Son and Denis Bouanga (and really several others!) will drive the majority of ticket sales on this wager, San Diego and the Vancouver Whitecaps aren’t far behind in talent and coaching ingenuity, making the race even more thrilling and possibly quite profitable.
With each passing week, every team awaits LAFC’s first stumble and wonders how it might affect their value in this bet, a wager that gradually shifts with the ebb and flow of the season. Watching as bookmakers slightly adjust these odds will, over time, create a vivid picture of how underdogs quietly creep up the rankings to steal the crown from the unexpected.
Until then, getting one of these three teams at this early value may be well worth considering, especially if you think these IWPs from BetMGM feel a bit off. Let’s jump into the list to see if any teams made significant moves over the past week.
odds to win the west | ~implied winning probability (IWP) | week-over-week IWP change
1. Los Angeles FC +275 | ~26.7% | ↓1.9%
A slight dip in implied winning percentage could be attributed to a handful of factors from this weekend’s games. LAFC’s dominance over Houston never really seemed in question, despite oddsmakers giving them only a 50% chance of collecting all three points. Two red cards diminish this win slightly, as it does feel like Son, Bouanga, and company probably should have scored even more. Add San Diego’s similar scoreline despite the lack of a man-advantage, and this mini-drop can be somewhat rationalized.
Next game: v. FC Dallas | odds to win -275: ~ 73.3%
2. San Diego +450 | ~18.2% | ↑2.8%
Anders Dreyer’s opening salvo, just three minutes in, set the tone for the rest of the game against St. Louis City. The goal was a product of consistent passing and excellent use of space. Dreyer started the counter, and after several crisp passes through the middle channel by his teammates, he found an open spot, the ball found him, and he tapped it in past a diving Roman Bürki. San Diego rarely relinquished the ball in this one and probably should have scored at least three more. It doesn’t look like they have missed a beat since last year, and if anything, they look slightly improved over their first two matches.
Next game: @ Sporting KC | odds to win -120 : ~ 54.5%
3. Vancouver Whitecaps +450 | ~18.2% | ↓1.8%
Thomas Müller can’t be stopped in the MLS, especially when it comes to the struggling teams that linger season after season at the bottom of the table. One goal was a penalty, and the other was a nice little set-up off a corner, but the German international could have had a third if an earlier deflection hadn’t gone just inches wide. While Müller is going to draw all the attention, without Brian White, Sebastian Berhalter, and a solid back line, this team would not be churning as efficiently this early. Their dip in IWP to win the conference can only be associated with San Diego’s slightly stronger win against a team bookies are still trying to figure out, while Vancouver annihilated an MLS Championship League* squad essentially.
*btw Pro/Rel would be so awesome in the MLS
Next game: @ Portland Timbers | odds to win +105: ~ 48.8%
4. Seattle Sounders +700 | ~12.5% | 0%
A hard-fought loss to Real Salt Lake wasn’t enough to change the bookmaker’s perception of Seattle. A game littered with shots – thirty in total, with seven of Seattle’s finding the net – came down to a dominant Rafael Cabral, who made six saves and stopped an outstanding 2.64 xGOT. The Sounders’ defense looked a bit overwhelmed at times, allowing 1.48 xG in open play. A second half that saw Seattle produce only 0.17 xG in open play left many fans wondering when and where a spark will ignite this offense.
Next game: v. @ St. Louis City | odds to win +115: ~ 46.5%
5. LA Galaxy +900 | ~10% | 0%
The Galaxy absolutely throttled Charlotte FC on Saturday, posting a hilariously lopsided xG battle of 2.92-0.21. Joao Klauss is on a mission to prove he was worth every penny of his off-season transfer, scoring two goals within two minutes of each other and lacing another shot 10 minutes later that very well could have been a hat trick. Once Gabriel Pec starts converting on some of his shots on target, this offense could grow into something much more formidable.
Next game: @ Colorado Rapids | odds to win +170 : ~ 37.0%
6. Houston Dynamo +1600 | ~5.9% | ↓0.8%
Antonio Carlos’s questionable tackle on Son in stoppage time of the first half completely altered the complexion of this match. While LAFC was the aggressor to start the game, Houston did an excellent job of keeping pace and playing tight defense before this unfortunate incident, which could have been a yellow card if it wasn’t against such a high-profile player in this league. The second red card – pulling down Sonny with a clear opening to the goal – was warranted, but by that point the game already felt like it was in LAFC’s hands.
Next game: @ New England Revolution | odds to win : ~ %
7. Austin +2000 | ~4.8% | ↑0.9%
One of only four teams to see an improved IWP across the entire league this week, Austin impressed the bookmakers in their 1-0 win against DC United, who happened to be one of the other teams to see an IWP boost. Seven different Austin players recorded shots on target, with Facundo Torres and Ilie Sanchez both notching two before the night was through. Austin eventually collected 18 shots, 9 on target, and one much-deserved goal by Christian Ramirez.
Next game: v. @ Charlotte | odds to win +240: ~ 29.4%
8. Minnesota United +2000 | ~4.8% | 0%
The Loons did a good job of punching above their weight class last weekend, actually looking like the stronger team after their match against FC Cincinnati despite seeing only 45% of possession. When Minnesota did get a hold of the ball, they didn’t waste time stringing together chances, generating more shots (16-13), shots on target (5-4), xG (2.02-0.83), and big chances (3-0) than the team currently predicted to be the runner-up to Inter Miami in the East. Out of the four teams sporting +2000 odds in this conference, Minnesota’s current win only boosts them slightly higher than the two teams below if you had to rank them.
Next game: @ Nashville SC | odds to win +320: ~ 23.8%
9. FC Dallas +2000 | ~4.8% | 0%
Keeping a clean sheet and withstanding a late red card to keep it that way helped buoy FC Dallas above Portland in this exercise, stealing a point from a much better opponent. Things are hardly peachy down in Dallas. Although they fired off nine shots, only two hit the target. And while offensive issues will persist, if they can continue to make efficient tackles, win ground and aerial duels, and stay in games like these, they may be able to keep afloat until an uncut gem up front arrives.
Next game: @ LAFC | odds to win +600 : ~ 14.3%
10. Portland Timbers +2000 | ~4.8% | 0%
Portland’s defense looked pretty atrocious last time out, allowing the Colorado Rapids to launch 24 shots, nine of which hit the target. In total, five huge chances should raise fears among this fanbase about whether things could be quickly turning sour in the City of Roses. With their offense also failing to meet any minimal expectations they might have had to start the season, the road ahead could get longer with every passing match for the Timbers.
Next game: v. Vancouver Whitecaps | odds to win +220: ~ 31.3%
The “Lying in Wait” Group : SJ Earthquakes +3300 | ~2.9% | ↑0.5%; Real Salt Lake +4000 | ~2.4% | ↓0.5%; Colorado Rapids +5000 | ~2% | ↓0.5%; Sporting KC +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓0.3%; St. Louis City +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓1.2%
MLS Week-Over-Week IWP Improvers:
- San Diego +450 | ~18.2% | ↑2.8%
- New York City +800 | ~11.1% | ↑1.1%
- Austin +2000 | ~4.8% | ↑0.9%
- DC United +4000 | ~2.4% | ↑0.5%
MLS Week-Over-Week IWP Losers:
- Orlando City +2500 | ~3.8% | ↓2%
- Los Angeles FC +275 | ~26.7% | ↓1.9%
- Vancouver Whitecaps +450 | ~18.2% | ↓1.8%
- St. Louis City +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓1.2%
- Philadelphia Union +900 | ~10% | ↓1.1%
- Charlotte +2500 | ~3.8% | ↓0.9%
- Houston Dynamo +1600 | ~5.9% | ↓0.8%
- SJ Earthquakes +3300 | ~2.9% | ↓0.5%
- Real Salt Lake +4000 | ~2.4% | ↓0.5%
- Chicago Fire +2500 | ~3.8% | ↓0.5%
- Colorado Rapids +5000 | ~2% | ↓0.5%
- Montreal Impact +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓0.3%
- Sporting KC +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓0.3%
- Toronto +8000 | ~1.2% | ↓0.3%
*** BETMGM’s odds to win posted on 2/13/26***
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