Five matches.
A universal number of games that people consider a good indicator of form. But, at the dawn of a new season, what can it really tell us?
If the first five games of the MLS 2026 season are a sign of anything, it should be a wild race to the end with most of the teams we all expected to see. Yet, as with every season of sport, there are always a handful of clubs that come out of the woodwork to surprise the unexpected. (Is that Nashville SC’s theme music I hear?)
The thing about only looking at a five-game span, however, is that this snapshot of results can completely sour over the next five, depending on the strength of schedule and how a team’s roster maintains fluidity. The fluctuations in the form of each individual aggregate the form of the whole, often wildly swinging teams’ recent form one way or the other.
And while it might be entertaining to think that Nashville SC will go undefeated or LAFC will score 55 goals with 34 clean sheets if each maintained their current pace, unfortunately, sports never really work this way.
Just like everyone else, soccer teams eventually struggle. As gamblers, picking out optimal opportunities during the season where the odds lean in your favor is a constant task. Despite a team’s current struggles, a string of upcoming games could potentially produce brighter results, ones futures odds might fail to appreciate. As you will see below, a handful of decent, unexpected results can shoot a team’s conference winning implied winning probabilities (IWP) through the roof, while opposite results tend to shove their IWP down a slippery slide that feels like it may never end.
Let’s look at how the MLS conferences’ winning odds have fluctuated over the past five weeks and hone in on a few teams that skyrocketed and some that can’t seem to stop inertia’s relentless downward tumbling force.
Western Conference
Out west, there are two clear tiers of teams vying for the conference crown, with LAFC holding steady at the pole position and an interesting trio of Vancouver Whitecaps, San Diego FC, and Seattle Sounders jockeying for the runner-up spot. However, with Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes sneakily making statement results on the reg, both appear to be creating a distinctive third tier of “Are These For Real or Pretenders” clubs.
LAFC remains the solid favorite to take this conference, despite their sluggish outing in Austin. And the trio in the second tier haven’t changed positions, even though the Whitecaps were the only ones not to drop IWP points. Although the Top 4 in the West are quite stable at the moment, it’s these two teams below that have produced results against these sides, sparking the question, are these clubs still undervalued at their current adjusted prices?
The first of these upstart underdogs is Real Salt Lake.
After being held scoreless against the Vancouver Whitecaps in Matchweek 1, RSL bounced back with some gusto, rattling off three straight wins and snatching away a point during the waning minutes against San Diego in one of the premier matches of the season. Squaring off against three of the top four teams in the Western Conference and gathering four points is hard to overlook.
RSL showed a ferocious resolve over the weekend, playing down a goal late, but never showing any signs of giving up the fight. While the fire pushing this squad to begin the season is a little unexpected, their tenacity will be truly tested in a few weeks when they run into San Diego and Seattle again, and this time cap it off with Inter Miami. If they can find their way through that gauntlet with another four points, RSL will surely skyrocket into the second tier of favorites before April is through.
The Quakes are rumbling to kick off the 2026 season notwithstanding the very minimal expectations that many fans and pundits had at the turn of the year.
Starting the season with just an under 3% chance of taking the conference title, Bruce Arena’s squad has transformed into a defensive stalwart through their first five games, giving up only one goal to Seattle in their only loss and keeping FOUR clean sheets in their four wins!
Let that sink in a bit.
Last year, the Earthquakes were more like sinkholes on defense, averaging 1.9 goals against per game (26th) and conceding 56.8 xG (22nd). So far this year, their goals against is only bested by LAFC, and their xG Conceded is 3rd best in the league (4.2).
With the defense stealing all of the headlines, its easy to forget that Timo Werner has yet to see a true breakout match for San Jose, which feels like it is on the verge of happening. The positives vibes in the South Bay are hard to ignore, but after last season’s rather quick start, many are hesitant to fully believe the form they are seeing.
A slate of five games that mix some worthy tests sandwiched with some easily overlooked opponents, should reveal if these Quakes are for real.
Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference was once just about Lionel Messi and Inter Miami. Yet, five games through the 2026 season, and it’s Nashville SC that is actually the most interesting team to watch in the East.
Inter Miami’s ever-so-slight dip in IWP isn’t super worrisome at the moment, but Nashville is firing up this chart with such a huge head of steam that fans in South Florida are desperately hoping the objects in their rearview mirror are closer than they appear. Tell that to NYCFC, who saw Nashville catch up to and fly right by them in a matter of a few weeks!
When you look at charts, these are the ones that make you feel all giddy inside. As we were all taught in middle school, lines on graphs that go up from left to right can only mean statistical improvement, and I’m pretty sure all stats for Nashville SC this season follow a similar trend.
Side-by-Side, Nashville is outperforming Miami in the first five MLS matches, scoring more goals, conceding fewer, and creating three more big chances per game. Ya, the sample size is small, and the schedules aren’t exactly comparable - with Inter Miami playing a slightly more difficult schedule - but the eye test uncovers a team that doesn’t rely on possession to create chances yet seems to find a way to make a plethora of chances with its talented group of midfielders and forwards.
Whether it’s Sam Surridge, Christian Espinoza, Warren Madrigal, or Hany Mukhtar, this team is going to find a way to make you pay once they open up a seam. Moreover, back-to-back draws against Inter Miami in the CONCACAF Champions Cup showed the world that they are up to the task of handling Messi’s “super team.”
A five-game stretch with a highly likelihood of gathering points from each match makes this a bet to hop on before the odds get even steeper.
One of the teams that Nashville will run into twice during that five-game span is the team to jump the second-highest IWP since last week. Charlotte‘s recent surge up these charts is largely attributed to a shellacking of New York Red Bull - a team so young it makes me want to call them all a bunch of whippersnappers - and a very unassuming tie against league favorites Inter Miami.
However, a draw against Western Conference cellar-dweller St. Louis City and a throttling by a free-falling LA Galaxy squad make me question which Charlotte will show up over their next five. Because they are going to have their hands full facing Nashville twice as well as another conference-title contender in NYCFC.
The rise here by Charlotte is certainly unexpected, but the ground they are standing on seems muito unstable, with the potential to collapse beneath them at any moment.
It’s not all sunshine and roses in the Eastern Conference. When teams surge up, it can only mean that some clubs are going in the opposite direction. And boy, are these teams heading the wrong way fast.
Columbus Crew recently walked off an IWP cliff after back-to-back losses, the most recent against Toronto, where they definitely look like the more concerning team between the two, a stark contrast from last season.
A fairly easy schedule over their next five could give this team a shot in the arm. However, now might be the time to jump on some plus odds that their opponents will probably be giving up over the next couple of weekends. Because from what we’ve seen thus far, I’m concerned this stumble could quickly turn into an elongated fall.
Expectations for the Philadelphia Union’s season are also quickly dropping with every passing week, and it hasn’t really been pretty.
Something is certainly amiss with Bradley Carnell’s crew. Scoring only three goals and losing all five matches is practically yelling, “Fire Me As Soon As I Lose My Next Game!” Especially since they look like a group that’s already exhausted with playing together. With an early CONCACAF Champions Cup exit to chew on as well, it’s hard to see where the dust settles with this car wreck and whether any part of this vehicle is salvageable for a playoff run.
IWP Week-Over-Week Movement (All Teams)
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