A couple of weeks away from making official Just One Bet picks seemed to be just what the doctor ordered. A 3-0-1 record (W-L-D for betting) in the UEFA Champions League Round 6 newsletter keeps hope alive that those picks can finish above the notorious 52% winning mark professional gamblers use as a benchmark.
However, the English Premier League newsletter picks are struggling. Two losing weeks plus two break-even weeks won’t cut it. Another losing week could send these picks spiraling into the “Fade Me” market, which, to be honest, might be closer than I think.
The beauty of sports gambling is that you are expected to be wrong the majority of the time. It’s the flashes of winning streaks that make you believe that you have the skills to beat the books.
With that said, let’s see if my current UCL winning streak can transfer into more profits over in the EPL.
Opening up the week with a plus money bet begs to kick off the betting day on the wrong foot, but the defense for both Liverpool (1.6 ga/g) and Brighton (1.4 ga/g) isn’t quite up to par, with Liverpool actually in the bottom half in goals conceded per match. Recent form gives each team hope, though, that change is on the horizon.
When recent form seems like it’s about to turn a corner, finding some good historical data to make your bet sound better will always do the trick. At Anfield, the Reds have scored at least two goals against the Seagulls in four straight. Furthermore, Brighton hasn’t been shut out by Liverpool since March 12, 2022, scoring at least one goal in eight straight meetings.
Getting to three goals seems like a safe bet. Over 3.0 is also available at a more friendly -119 price, but I feel like this might be a spot where Liverpool notches a three-spot for the second time in three games. However, whether or not that fourth one hits will probably keep you on edge for the game’s entirety.
Plus-money fever strikes once again, this time going against my algorithms and picking this one on feel and history. Which is not necessarily a good thing…
Burnley, when up in the EPL, seem to consider Fulham as an equal, especially when playing them at Turf Moor. Since 2015, the Clarets are undefeated (2-2-0, W-D-L for soccer) against the Cottagers at home, scoring at least two goals in three of the four. Fulham has also never been shut out playing Burnley away, so I fully expect this game to have a few goals.
Assuming these teams are scoring-inept isn’t entirely off, especially when you factor in Burnley’s 1.1 goals per game over their last 10 games. However, Fulham is scoring more often over their last five, averaging a much more respectable 1.6 gf/g. And facing a much more favorable defense, they should be able to find the back of the net at least once despite their offensive woes on the road (0.88 gf/g in their last eight road games).
I am not fully convinced that these defenses can hold down the fort forever, let alone for just two goals. Betting Both Teams to Score-Yes may also be worth a look at (-124) and could go nicely with this one to recoup any losses that might occur if this just ends in a 1-1 draw. But, I have a sneaky suspicion that this one also reaches four.
Scoring three goals doesn’t seem like a tall task for Arsenal, especially since the Wolves look befuddled on defense the majority of the time.
Eight straight losses for the Wovles should say it all.
If the Gunners can’t notch at least three against this sad excuse for an EPL team, then their offense may need to be discussed a little further in depth.
Like their mid-week tussle against the much inferior Club Brugge, Arsenal should dominate this one, scoring at least three. (Dare I say four???)
After a concerningly slow start, Villa is finally buzzing again, lingering around the top of the table and winners of six straight across all competitions.
It’s always concerning when a team on an obvious hot streak sits at plus money. West Ham does appear to be a draw-producing machine lately, leaving with only one point in three of their last four.
Adding on to that, Villa has only won twice at London Stadium. But the last win did come last year.
This is a game where recent form will push out any strange stats from the past. West Ham and Villa are not currently at the same tier in the EPL, their records being one of many indicators.
Don’t let the books fool you into believing that Villa only has a 50% probability of winning this match. Villa’s coaching, forwards, and goaltending are all head over heels better than West Ham at this time. Villa’s chances of winning have to be pushing 55%, if not higher. This is a value bet worth every cent of your wager.
Four losses over their last six doesn’t really make the Bees a sexy wager. However, three straight wins at home stir the pot into something a bit more interesting.
Brentford haven’t scored in two straight and will come into this one looking to release some frustration on a Leeds team that currently has no defense.
Apparently, Leeds’ recent tactical plan is to see how many balls they can let cross their own goal line, conceding at least two goals in five of their last six matches.
The road has been a tough place for Leeds, with only one win and seven losses away from home in EPL play. Not much to say to that, but that’s pretty darn terrible. To cap it off, they are averaging 0.85 goals per game and 2.57 goals against in those bouts. Throw in the fact that Brentford is 5-2-1 in this duel when played in Brentford, and this one has “take to me to bed or lose me forever” written all over it.
Brentford desperately needs a rebound win, and Leeds just might be willing to offer it up for them.
Here is an interesting matchup. When played at Old Trafford, one team has scored at least three goals in six straight games.
I don’t really want to say that’s enough to put something on this game, but come on. How could this streak NOT continue?
Helping the allure of this one is the fact that Manchester United has given up at least one goal eight straight, which could be the elixer Bournemouth is seeking, as they have been held scoreless in two straight and in three of their last five.
Three goals seems like a gimmie, and yup, you guessed it, I think there might be FOUR goals in this one as well!
It’s the giving season, so goals are happening this weekend, whether your like it or not. Might as well make some extra cash off of it!
English Premier League Picks (W-L-D)
· Matchweek 9: 2-4
· Matchweek 10: 3-3
· Matchweek 11: 2-3-1
· Matchweek 12: 2-2-2
Overall Record: 9-12-3
UEFA Champions League Picks
· Round 3: 1-3
· Round 4: 1-3
· Round 5: 2-2
· Round 5: 3-0-1
Overall Record: 7-8-1
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