Well, per usual. My schedule has forced me to put my soccer writing articles on the back burner. At the very least, I wanted to keep Fourth Friday Futures going for at least one more month.
Last month, Pitchside Docket gave out Man City to win the EPL literally 3 hours before the news finally dropped that they were guilty of 100+ financial violations. This timing seemed fitting for any bet that I decide to proclaim as a pick in one of my articles, so, as always, buyers beware.
This month, it might be a good idea to back that EPL league winner well. If Man City is about to take a Haaland-style haircut in points, the race for this season’s crown becomes extremely thin. But uncertainty around what kind of penalty they will receive, and whether it lands this year or next, makes it a variable most algorithms can't properly gauge. So, why not take a long shot and see if you can cash in.
Brighton - EPL - League Winner (+1800): What an amazing start by the Seagulls! Currently third in the table and the fourth favorite to take the Premier League title, Brighton is playing dominant football, albeit against much weaker opponents. Arsenal’s tall task of repeating an EPL title will likely weigh heavily on them once the calendar year turns. And while Liverpool and Chelsea may seem like the obvious bridesmaids to quickly step over the fallen bride, Brighton could make things interesting if they keep firing goals (and keeping them out) at their current clip for the rest of the season.
Ipswich Town - EPL - Relegation (+185): With uncertainty swirling over whether Man City gets dibs on one of the bottom 3 relegation spots, these odds also offer value. Ipswich, while mid-table at the moment, are looking more like a potential relegation candidate with each passing week. The Tractor Boys are treading water on most stats, allowing a league-worst 2.04 expected goals per game, and have conceded 15 goals, enough to be second last. Add that they are the only team without a clean sheet, and it seems they have issues everywhere on the pitch. Wins against fellow relegation candidates Sunderland, Crystal Palace, and Fulham are essential to staying up, but they don’t bode well for success against the other teams.
Benfica - Portugal Liga - League Winner (+275): History lovers, look away - this bet isn't for you. Porto is perfect through eight games, and only two other teams have started the Portugal top flight with such success: Porto in 2007/08 and Sporting in 2024/25. Both teams went on to take the league title. With so much of the season left, and Benfica putting up impressive stats, it's hard to see As Águias with only a 24.1% chance of the title. While our model puts their title chances slightly higher than 30%, the difference is enough to spark a little interest. Aside from two games, a loss to Porto and a draw with Académico de Viseu, Benfica has dominated. They lead the league in xG (2.37 a game), fewest xG allowed (0.63), xG difference (+1.75), shots (19.6), shots on target (6.9), possession (63%) and corners. Across 8 games, they’ve created about 19 xG and given up about 5. All of that has to spell some sort of title change come April.
Valencia - La Liga - Relegation (+400): Valencia sit 19th with 6 points after nine games, and their attack is among the worst in La Liga: 0.67 goals and 2.67 shots on target a game, both 19th, and goose eggs in the GF in five of nine. Their next ten matches include Real Madrid, Atlético and Villarreal, plus six-pointers against Elche, Rayo, Osasuna, Getafe, Espanyol and Levante, so, ya, improvement is going to be an uphill battle. Our season simulation gives them a 29.6% chance of going down, almost 10% higher than the books at this point.
Past Picks
September:
Manchester City - EPL - League Winner (+135): Well, shit…
Venzia - Serie A - To Finish Last (+200): Still looking good, but priced better at +250 this month.
Villarreal - La Liga - Top 4 Finish (+550): Another free faller, now at +900!
Southampton - Championship - To Be Promoted (+225): Like the above, the price for this is much better this month at +300.